Mumusika wepasi rose, kupatsanuka mukuita kunogona kutarisirwa - mune pombi uye kutonga mutsara chikamu ichi ndicho chakakosha dingindira.Chokwadi, kuita kwechikamu-chikamu kuita kunosiyana kwete chete nejogirafi uye chikamu chemusika asiwo nekudzika kwemvura, zvekuvaka uye mamiriro ezvakatipoteredza.Muenzaniso wakakosha weaya masimba unoratidzwa neakasiyana mazinga ekukura kwemusika anotarisirwa nedunhu renzvimbo.Chokwadi, nepo misika yemvura isina kudzika yeNorth Sea neGulf yeMexico (GoM) iri kuderera zvishoma nezvishoma, matunhu eSouth East Asia, Brazilian neAfrica ari kuramba achiwedzera.Nekudaro, kutenderera kwenguva pfupi kunotarisirwawo kupupurira kukura kwakakura munzvimbo dzemuganho dzemvura yakadzika yeNorway, UK West yeShetland neLower Tertiary Trend muGulf yeMexico, ine yakadzika, yakaoma uye yakawanda iri kure yekutyaira yemvura mukati. matunhu aya.Muchidzidzo ichi, Luke Davis naGregory Brown veInfield Systems vanorondedzera pamusoro pemamiriro ezvinhu epombi uye kutonga mutsara wemisika uye izvo vataridzi vemabhizimisi vanogona kutarisira kutenderera kwemusika.
Market Outlook
Mumakore mashanu anotevera Infield Systems inofanotaura nezvepombi nekudzora mashandisirwo emagetsi kusvika pedyo neiyo $270bn mark, yakaenzana neinoda kusvika 80,000km yemitsara iyo 56,000km ichave mapaipi uye 24,000km ichave mitsetse yekudzora.Mukubatana zvikamu zviviri izvi zvinotarisirwa kuona kukura kwepamusoro mushure mekuderera kukuru pakati pekutanga kwegore ra2008 uye pasi pegore ra2009 na2010. Zvisinei, pasinei netarisiro iyi yekukura, zvakakosha kucherechedza kusiyana kukuru kwenzvimbo. kushanda sezvo misika ichiri kusimukira inotanga kudarika mabheseni echinyakare ekuita.
Nepo kushandiswa kwemari mumatunhu akakura kunofungidzirwa kuti kuchadzoka munguva pfupi iri kutevera, kukura kwenguva refu kune mwero kana uchionekwa padivi pemamwe misika iri kusimukira.Chokwadi, zviitiko zvichangobva kuitika muNorth America, zvinosanganisira kudonha kubva mudambudziko remari, dambudziko reMacondo uye kukwikwidza kubva kumahombekombe egungwa gasi, zvakabatana kuderedza mvura isina kudzika E&A basa uye nekudaro kuiswa kwepuratifomu uye pombi mudunhu.Mufananidzo wakafanana wakaitika muUK North Sea - kunyangwe misika ine usimbe pano iri kufambiswa zvakanyanya nekuchinja kwehupfumi hwedunhu uye kuomerwa kwekuwana kiredhiti - mamiriro ezvinhu akawedzerwa nedambudziko rechikwereti chakanyanya muEurozone.
Nekudaro, nepo matunhu maviri aya asina kudzika achimira, Infield Systems inotarisira kukura kwakanyanya mumisika ichiri kubuda yeNorth Western Australia, East Africa nenzvimbo dzeAsia (kusanganisira chiitiko chemvura yakadzika muSouth China Sea uye kumahombekombe kweKrishna-Godavari mabheseni kubva kuIndia) ukuwo. iyo yakadzika yemvura yakadzika yeWest Africa, Gulf yeMexico neBrazil inofanira kuramba ichipa yakakosha kwenguva refu yemusika.
Kufamba makomo - kukura kwetrunk-lines
Ipo maitiro ekuwedzera kudzika kwemvura kuisirwa, uye nekudaro mitsetse yeSURF yakabatana, icharamba ichibata kutarisisa kweindasitiri, kuisirwa mvura isina kudzika kunotarisirwa kuchengetedza chikamu chakakosha chemusika kune ramangwana rinofanoona.Chokwadi, zvikamu zviviri muzvitatu zvekushandiswa kwemari zvakafanotaurwa kuti zvichanangana nekuvandudzwa kuri pasi pe500 metres emvura mukati menguva kusvika 2015. Saka, kuiswa kwepombi kwakajairika kuchaumba chikamu chikuru chezvinodiwa kuenda kumberi - chikamu chakakosha. iyo inofungidzirwa kuti ichafambiswa nekuvandudzwa kwemvura isina kudzika kumahombekombe eAsia.
Huru yemvura isina kudzika uye mitsetse yekutumira kunze ichave chinhu chakakosha pamusika wepombi wakakura mukati memakore mashanu ari kuuya sezvo chikamu ichi chiri kufanotaura kuratidza kukura kwakasimba.Chiitiko mukati mechikamu ichi chagara chichisundwa nekumanikidzwa kuhurumende dzenyika nevatungamiriri vematunhu kuti vawedzere kuchengetedzeka kwesimba kuburikidza nekusiyana-siyana kwezvinhu zvehydrocarbon.Aya makuru mapaipi network anowanzo kutsamira zvakanyanya pahukama hwepasirese uye macroeconomic mamiriro, uye nekudaro anogona kusarongeka ari pasi pekunonoka uye kuongororwazve mukuenzanisa nechero chikamu chemusika.
Europe inobata chikamu chikuru chemusika wekutengesa kunze kwenyika uye trunk line 42% yemakiromita akaiswa pasi rose uye inofungidzira 38% yemari yekushandisa kusvika muna 2015. Iine huwandu hwepamusoro uye mapurojekiti akaomarara muzvikamu zvekuronga nekuvaka, kunyanya Nord. Kutepfenyura, Huru yeEurope uye mutsara wekutengesa kunze kwenyika mari inoshandiswa inofungidzirwa kusvika imwe US$21,000m mukati menguva ya2011-2015.
Kutanga kuziviswa muna 2001, chirongwa cheNord Stream chinobatanidza Vyborg muRussia neGreifswald kuGermany.Mutsara uyu ndiyo pombi refu yepasi pegungwa pasi rose iri 1,224km pakureba.Chirongwa cheNord Stream chave nemubatanidzwa wakaomesesa wemakondirakiti anosanganisira Royal Boskalis Westminster, Tideway, Sumitomo, Saipem, Allseas, Technip neSnamprogetti pakati pevamwe vanoshandira mubatanidzwa unosanganisira Gazprom, GDF Suez, Wintershall, Gasunie neE.ON Ruhrgas.MunaNovember 2011 yakaziviswa nemubatanidzwa kuti yekutanga yemitsara miviri yakabatana neEuropean gasi grid.Pakupedzwa, iyo hombe mapatya mapaipi chirongwa chinotarisirwa kupa musika weEurope une nzara ne55 BCM yegasi (yakaenzana ne18% ye2010 kuchamhembe kwakadziva kumadokero kweEurope kushandiswa) pagore mumakore makumi mashanu anotevera.Nord Stream parutivi, mari mumusika wetrunk uye wekutengesa kunze kwenyika inotarisirwawo kuwedzera zvakanyanya muAsia, ichikwira kubva paUS$4,000m munhoroondo ya2006-2010 kusvika kuUS$6,800m kuenda kumberi kusvika 2015. zvinoratidza kukura kuri kutarisirwa mukudiwa kwesimba muAsia yose.
Nord Stream inoputira iyo logistical, zvematongerwo enyika uye einjiniya kuomarara kwakabatana nekukura kukuru-mutsara.Chokwadi, kunze kwematambudziko ehunyanzvi ane chekuita neinjiniya mapaipi maviri e1,224km, mubatanidzwa webudiriro wakapihwa basa rekutonga zvinokonzeresa zvematongerwo enyika zvekufambisa mutsara kuburikidza nemvura yenharaunda yeRussia, Finland, Sweden, Denmark neGermany mukuwedzera pakugutsa zvaidiwa. nyika dzakakanganisika dzeLatvia, Lithuania, Estonia nePoland.Zvakatora anenge makore mapfumbamwe kuti chirongwa ichi chibvumirwe uye pachakazogamuchirwa muna February 2010, basa rakatanga nokukurumidza muna April gore iroro.Nord Stream pipelay inofanirwa kupedzwa muQ3 2012 nekumisikidzwa kwemutsara wechipiri kuunza kupera kune imwe yenyaya dzinogara dziripo mukuvandudzwa kwezvivakwa zvekunze.Iyo Trans ASEAN pombi inogona kuitika trunk line chirongwa chaizopfuura nemuAsia uye nekudaro kuwedzera huwandu hwakakura hwehydrocarbon hweSouth East Asia kunzvimbo dzakapfuma zviwanikwa.
Nepo ichi chiitiko chepamusoro chiri kukurudzira hachisi chimiro chenguva refu - asi chinoratidza kutenderera uku pamusika.Pamusoro pekukura kuri pedyo-kwenguva muEastern Europe chiitiko Infield Systems inocherekedza zvishoma kudiwa post 2018 sezvo izvi zvirikuitika zvakanyanya kune imwe chete kubva kumapurojekiti uye kana zvave munzvimbo Infield Systems inoona chiitiko cheramangwana chichifambiswa ne-tie-mumitsetse pane mamwe makuru makuru ekunze mitsara. .
Kutasva iyo SURF - Yenguva refu maitiro
Inotungamirwa neyakayangarara kugadzirwa uye subsea tekinoroji musika wepasirese wemvura yakadzika ingangove inokurumidza kukurumidza chikamu cheiyo offshore mafuta negasi indasitiri.Chokwadi, nenzvimbo zhinji dzemumahombekombe uye dzisina kudzika dzemvura dzakatarisana nekudzikira kwekugadzirwa uye maNOC mukutonga kwenzvimbo dzakapfuma zviwanikwa senge Middle East, vashandisi vari kuwedzera kutsvaga kutsvaga nekugadzira nzvimbo dzekuchengetera mumatunhu.Izvi zviri kuitika kwete munzvimbo nhatu dzemvura yakadzika "heavyweight" - GoM, West Africa neBrazil - asiwo muAsia, Australasia neEurope zvakare.
Kumusika weSURF maitiro akajeka uye akasiyana akananga kuwedzera kudzika kwemvura E&P chiitiko chinofanira kududzira mukukura kukuru kwemusika mumakore gumi anotevera nekupfuura.Chokwadi, Infield Systems inofungidzira kukura kwakasimba muna 2012 sezvo maIOC arikuenderera mberi nekuvandudza nzvimbo dzadzo dzakadzika dzemvura muWest Africa neUS GoM apo Petrobras inoenderera mberi nekuvandudza kwayo nzvimbo dzeBrazil dzinochengeterwa munyu.
Sezvinoratidzwa Mufananidzo 3 pazasi, pane polarization mukuita kwemusika pakati pemisika isina kudzika uye yemvura yakadzika yeSURF.Chokwadi, nepo musika wemvura usina kudzika uchitarisirwa kuratidza kukura kuri pakati nepakati munguva iri pedyo - maitiro enguva refu haana kunaka.Nekudaro, mumvura yakadzika, chiitiko chakanyanya kusimba sezvo mari yese yekushandisa inotarisirwa kuwedzera ne56% pakati penguva dza2006-2010 uye 2011-2015.
Nepo kusimukira kwemvura yakadzika pasina mubvunzo kwave kuri injini yekukura kwemusika weSURF pamakore gumi apfuura kuenderera mberi kwenzvimbo dziri kure dzemafuta negasi kunopa imwe mafuta kumoto.Kunyanya, kureba-kure-kure subsea tiebacks kuri kuita kuri kuwedzera kuwanda kwekusimudzira mamiriro emunda sezvo R&D inoshanda nevashandisi uye makondirakiti avo anotanga kuita kuti mapurojekiti aya akaomarara akwanise kuitika.Mapurojekiti achangoburwa emhando yepamusoro anosanganisira Statoil neShell's Ormen Lange budiriro mhiri kweNorway uye chirongwa cheTotal's Laggan kumahombekombe UK kuMadokero kwedunhu reShetland.Yekutanga ndiyo yakareba pasirese pasi pegungwa-ku-shore tieback iyo iri kugadzira pari zvino apo iyo yekupedzisira ichatyora iyo rekodhi uye kuvhura iyo Atlantic margin kufambisira mberi E&P chiitiko chakambotumirwa muna 2014.
Mumwe muenzaniso wakakosha wemaitiro aya uri mukusimudzirwa kwenzvimbo yakadzika yeJansz kumahombekombe kweAustralia.Jansz chikamu cheGreater Gorgon chirongwa, icho maererano neChevron chichava chirongwa chikuru chezviwanikwa munhoroondo yeAustralia.Iyo purojekiti inosanganisira kuvandudzwa kweminda yakati wandei, kusanganisira Gorgon neJansz, iyo yakazara ine fungidziro yekuchengetedza ye40 Tcf.Inofungidzirwa kukosha kwepurojekiti iUS $ 43bn, uye kutanga kugadzirwa kweLNG kunotarisirwa muna 2014. Nzvimbo yeGreater Gorgon iri pakati pe130km ne200km kubva kumhenderekedzo yeNorth West Australia.Minda ichabatanidzwa ne70 km, 38 inch subsea pombi uye 180km 38 inch subsea pombi kuenda kunzvimbo yeLNG paBarrow Island.Kubva kuBarrow Island pombi ye90 km inozobatanidza nzvimbo iyi kune mainland yeAustralia.
Ipo budiriro yeSURF senge idzo dziri munzvimbo dzinonetsa dzeNorth Sea, Brazil, West Africa, GoM, Asia neNorth West Australia dziri kutyaira musika nhasi, kukurudzira E&A mhedzisiro muEast Africa kunofanirwa kupa kumwe kukura kunowedzera kudzika mutsara.Chokwadi, kubudirira kwekuongorora kwazvino kwakafanana nekwaWindjammer, Barquentine neLagosta kwakafambisa mavhoriyamu akawanikwa kupfuura chikumbaridzo (10 Tcf) yenzvimbo yeLNG.East Africa neMozambique kunyanya, yave kutorwa seAustralia mangwana.Anadarko, anoshanda kuWindjammer, Barquentine neLagosta anoronga kuvandudza matura aya kuburikidza nekunze kwemahombekombe tie-kudzokera kunzvimbo yepamhenderekedzo yeLNG.Ikozvino yabatanidzwa nekuwanikwa kwaEni kuMamba South zvichiita kuti purojekiti ye22.5 Tcf inogona kuitika mukupera kwemakore gumi.
Pombi yemikana
Kukura kwepombi, mutsara wekutonga uye zvechokwadi, musika wakakura wekumahombekombe mune iri kuuya kutenderera kunogona kuratidzwa nekudzika, kuomarara uye mamwe mapurojekiti ari kure.IOC, NOC uye kutora chikamu kwakazvimirira kunogona kugadzira musika wakaorera wekondirakiti kune vese makondirakiti makuru nevamwe vavo veko.Huwandu hwekuita hwakadaro hunogona kuisa kunetsa kwakakura pane cheni yekugovera munguva refu sezvo chishuwo chekudyara kubva kune vashandisi chakapfuura huwandu hwechikwereti chinodiwa kuisa mune zvakakosha zvekupa: zvidyarwa zvekugadzira, midziyo yekuisa uye pamwe zvakanyanya hutsinye. , mapaipi mainjiniya.
Nepo dingindira rekukura riri chiratidziro chakanaka kune ramangwana rekuita mari, maonero akadaro anofanirwa kudzikamiswa nekutya kweketani yekugovera isina kukwana kugona kugadzirisa kuwedzera kwakadaro.Iko Infield Systems kutenda kuti kupfuura kuwana kiredhiti, kusagadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika uye kuri kuuya kunyorazve kwehutano nekuchengetedza mutemo, iyo inonyanya kutyisidzira kukura kwemusika kushaikwa kweinjiniya ane hunyanzvi muvashandi.
Vashandi veindasitiri vanofanirwa kuziva kuti kunyangwe nyaya yekukura inomanikidza, chero chiitiko chemangwana mupombi uye kutonga mitsara misika inotsamira pane yekugovera yehukuru hwakakwana uye kugona kuitira kutsigira huwandu hwemapurojekiti akarongwa neakasiyana evashandisi.Pasinei nekutya uku musika unogara pamucheto wekutenderera kunonakidza.Sevacherechedzi veindasitiri Infield Systems vanotarisisa mumwedzi iri kuuya vachitarisira kudzoreredza kwakakosha kwemusika kubva mukuderera kwa2009 na2010.
Nguva yekutumira: Kubvumbi-27-2022